京东方教父退休二次创业，做出境内最大12寸硅片厂！奕斯伟：科八条后首单亏损IPO，估值两年涨6倍

Industry Overview - By 2026, the number of 12-inch wafer fabs in mainland China is expected to exceed 70, with a corresponding capacity increase to 3.29 million wafers per month, accounting for about one-third of the global total, with 2.6 million wafers per month coming from domestic wafer fabs such as SMIC and Huahong Group [2] - The shipment area of 12-inch wafers increased from 63.83% in 2017 to 73.02% in 2023, becoming the absolute mainstream in the market, and is expected to further increase [59] - The 12-inch wafer field globally is dominated by a few major players, with Shin-Etsu and SUMCO each holding over 20% market share, while the company in question holds less than 7% [60] Company Performance - The company's comprehensive gross margin recovered to 4.4%, and the net margin reached -41.1%, the highest since its establishment, but it is still far from profitability [8] - The company expects to achieve consolidated profitability in 2026 or 2027, based on the development paths of domestic and foreign peers, with new entrants generally experiencing 4-6 years of operating losses [9] - The company's operating cash flow has been continuously improving, with a net inflow of 653 million in the first three quarters of 2024, more than double the full-year level of 2023 [10] Product and Market Transition - The company is in the transition phase from test wafer mass production to prime wafer mass production, with the proportion of polished wafers and epitaxial wafers increasing year by year [6] - The sustained high growth in test wafer revenue can be seen as a leading indicator for the mass production of prime wafers [7] - The company has achieved full coverage of downstream storage, logic, analog, and MCU chips, with its biggest feature being its exclusive focus on 12-inch wafers, not involving 8-inch and below wafer business [67] Financial and Operational Metrics - The company's silicon wafer capacity increased from 120,000 wafers per month in 2021 to 650,000 wafers per month by the third quarter of 2024 [75] - The company's first factory has reached full production capacity of 600,000 wafers per month, and the second factory, as an IPO-funded project, has started production with 50,000 wafers per month in 2024, expected to reach full production by 2026, with a combined monthly capacity of 1.2 million wafers [43] - The company's average unit cost (excluding inventory impairment reversal and other factors) for the first nine months of 2024 was lower than that of a competitor for the full year of 2023, indicating that the latecomer disadvantage is being offset by economies of scale [17] Capital and Investment - The company completed four rounds of external financing from July 2021 to May 2023, raising a total of 11.5 billion, with its pre-investment valuation soaring from 3 billion to 17.705 billion, nearly six times in two years [50] - The company received support from major banks, with long-term loans growing from 0 to 6.083 billion from 2021 to the end of the third quarter of 2024 [24] - The IPO fundraising amounted to 4.9 billion, mainly for capacity expansion, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [47] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges such as the "latecomer curse" and the need to achieve profitability as soon as possible [79] - The company has about 50% of raw materials and 60% of equipment that need to be imported, which could be a problem if the global semiconductor industry becomes more closed [80] - The company is focusing on the domestic substitution space under the current international competitive environment, with the 12-inch wafer localization rate expected to increase in the long term [73]