2025上半年配置策略展望：静水流深，藏锋待时

Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - Trade friction is expected to significantly suppress the contribution of exports to China's economic growth, with a projected 42.8% decline in exports to the U.S. and an 8.5% drop in total exports under the baseline scenario[1] - In an aggressive tariff scenario, total exports from China could decrease by 12.3%, leading to a 1.8% reduction in China's economic growth[1] - The impact of these declines is estimated to drag down economic growth in China and the U.S. by 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - China's monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a projected total reduction of 30 basis points (BP) in policy rates by 2025, alongside a 50-100 BP decrease in the reserve requirement ratio[3] - The central bank aims to create a relatively abundant liquidity environment to stimulate the real economy, especially in light of slowing domestic inflation[3] - The People's Bank of China may face constraints on further rate cuts due to pressures on the RMB exchange rate from potential new trade frictions and inflationary policies from the U.S.[3] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery - Fiscal policy is anticipated to play a crucial role in stabilizing China's economy, with expectations of a deficit rate rising to 3.8% in 2025 due to increased counter-cyclical measures[56] - The government plans to enhance fiscal stimulus through various measures, including raising the quota for special bonds and issuing additional treasury bonds to support key sectors[56] - Despite external pressures, the combination of fiscal and monetary policies is projected to support a 4.7% growth in China's GDP for 2025[56] Group 4: U.S. Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain resilience, with a projected GDP growth rate of 1.9%-2.3% in 2025, despite potential challenges from trade policies and inflation[22] - Inflation is likely to remain above the 2% target, compelling the Federal Reserve to keep policy rates above 3.5%[26] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with unemployment rates rising and job growth slowing, which may influence future monetary policy decisions[11]