家电行业12月动态跟踪：海外积极备货，政策助燃内销暖冬

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 10% relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to stabilizing domestic and international demand, with significant improvements in sales driven by government policies and market dynamics [37][49]. - The export of home appliances has shown strong growth, with a cumulative export of 4.099 billion units from January to November 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [20][22]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated market demand, leading to a notable increase in retail sales, which reached 120 billion yuan in November 2024, up 22.2% year-on-year [31][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, with a 10.77% year-on-year increase in transaction volumes in November 2024 across 30 major cities, marking the first positive growth this year [20][44]. - The "old-for-new" policy and promotional activities have led to a significant improvement in domestic sales, with retail sales of home appliances consistently growing over 20% for three consecutive months [31][75]. 2. Export Dynamics - Home appliance exports have maintained a strong upward trend, with a cumulative export value of 91.72 billion USD from January to November 2024, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - The export growth is supported by recovering global demand and proactive inventory building by overseas merchants [20][22]. 3. Profitability and Valuation - The industry is currently valued below historical averages, indicating potential long-term investment value [27][93]. - The report highlights that the annualized ROE for the industry is projected at 16.62%, remaining stable compared to 2023, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and improved export shares [86]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. White goods leaders benefiting from domestic and international sales improvements, recommending Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [32]. 2. Kitchen appliance leaders expected to benefit from market optimization and real estate recovery, recommending Robam Appliances [32]. 3. Cleaning appliance companies actively expanding channels and launching new products, recommending Roborock Technology [32].