日本可选消费必需消费：通胀加速，年末折扣季刺激零售额增长

Macro Environment - Inflation accelerated, with CPI rising 2.9% YoY in November, while real wages fell 0.4% YoY in October, marking three consecutive months of decline [55][52] - The consumer confidence index increased to 36.4 in November from 36.2 previously, indicating a slight improvement in consumer sentiment [55] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.7% YoY in November, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [55] Sector Performance - Retail sales saw significant growth due to year-end discount events like "Black Friday," with same-store sales in restaurants achieving positive growth for the 36th consecutive month [55][10] - The dual pressures of yen depreciation and rising prices have made consumers more cautious about daily expenses, favoring cost-effective goods [55][10] - Inbound tourism continues to thrive, boosting duty-free sales and hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) [55][10] Consumer Staples - In November, same-store sales for major retailers like PPIH and AEON increased by 8.0% and 4.6% YoY, respectively, while soft drink sales faced pressure with declines of 4% to 9% for major brands [55][11] - Alcoholic beverage sales remained flat, with Asahi's beer revenue decreasing by 1% YoY, while RTD (ready-to-drink) products saw a significant increase of 62% YoY [55][11] Discretionary Spending - Strong demand for winter clothing was noted, with same-store sales for apparel retailers like ABC-MART and Uniqlo increasing by 14.7% and 12.2% YoY, respectively [55][26] - Restaurant chains also reported robust growth, with same-store sales for Saizeriya and Skylark rising by 23.0% and 13.6% YoY [55][55] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with optimistic profit improvement prospects, including ASICS, benefiting from improved pricing and product mix [55][52] - PPIH is noted for strong same-store sales growth and expanding profit margins in discount retail [55][52] - Fast Retailing Group is highlighted for rapid international growth and strong local sales performance [55][52] - Asahi Group's premiumization strategy in Europe is performing better than expected, with significant growth potential in RTD and non-alcoholic beer segments [55][52]