非酒类食品饮料月度专题：如何展望2025年原奶周期？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [11]. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2025 suggests a potential balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to stabilize and recover from previous declines [6][50]. - The raw milk industry has experienced a prolonged downward price cycle since August 2021, with prices dropping approximately 30% from their peak [30]. - Supply-side factors include a reduction in cow inventory and improved milk yield, while demand is projected to grow modestly due to policy support and economic recovery [7][62]. Supply Summary - Supply is expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, driven by a slight reduction in the number of breeding cows and a decline in imports [50]. - The domestic production of raw milk is characterized by a slow reduction in cow numbers and continuous improvement in yield, leading to a gradual supply contraction [36][38]. - Factors contributing to supply reduction include slowed ranch construction, collaboration between large farms and dairy companies, and rising raw material prices that may accelerate the exit of smaller farms [38][55]. Demand Summary - Demand is anticipated to grow by 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and a gradual economic recovery [50][62]. - The demand for liquid milk is expected to increase by 2.0%, while dry dairy products may see a growth of 3.0% [50]. - The theoretical demand space for dairy products remains significant, with policies promoting consumption likely to enhance demand [7][62]. Market Tracking - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.4% from December 1 to December 25, 2024, ranking 12th among 31 sub-industries [7]. - In December 2024, the prices of core raw materials showed a mixed trend, with fresh milk prices at 3.11 yuan per kilogram, down 15.3% year-on-year [9][22]. - The report highlights that the packaging materials market has seen a release of cost benefits, with prices for PET bottles down 11.5% year-on-year [9][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with resilient consumer demand and clear long-term industry logic, such as snacks and beverages, with key companies including Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - It also recommends monitoring dairy products, particularly companies like Yili and New Dairy, which may benefit from marginal improvements and potential industry cycle reversals [9]. - Additionally, sectors with cyclical recovery potential and favorable competitive landscapes, such as B-end condiments and food supply chains, are highlighted for investment [9].