海外经济政策跟踪：美债利率升破4.6%

Market Performance - Global major asset prices increased last week (2024.12.20-2024.12.27), with the S&P 500 rising by 0.7%, Nikkei 225 up by 4.1%, and Hang Seng Index up by 1.9%[1] - Emerging market stock index outperformed developed market stock index, with increases of 1.3% and 0.9% respectively[15] Commodity and Bond Market - IPE Brent crude futures rose by 1.4%, COMEX copper increased by 0.7%, and the South China Commodity Index was up by 0.3%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.62%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures fell by 0.03%[1] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to close at 108.0, with the USD/JPY exchange rate at 157.9 and USD/CNY at 7.3, indicating depreciation of both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan[1] Inflation Expectations - As of December 27, the 5-year inflation expectation in the U.S. was 2.38%, up by 4 basis points, while the 10-year expectation rose by 5 basis points to 2.34%[9] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been pushed to May 2025, with only one anticipated cut of 25 basis points for that year[9] European Steel Production - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of crude steel production in the EU's 28 countries fell to 0.9%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month[23][50]