“周期建材继往开来”系列一：水泥复盘：重视水泥“反内卷”与产能处置

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [33]. Core Insights - The cement industry is currently experiencing a significant bottoming phase, with the potential for recovery driven by "anti-involution" and capacity disposal as core dynamics [56][66]. - The industry has undergone four historical bottoms, with the most recent one occurring in 2024, where the average profit per ton of cement has fallen below that of 2015 [66]. - The supply-side reform is expected to address the overcapacity issue, with a new capacity replacement scheme aiming to reduce excess production significantly over the next 1-2 years [57]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - Continuous new capacity additions have led to significant supply pressure in the cement industry, with national clinker capacity reaching 1.81 billion tons in 2015, marking a peak [2]. - Peak production constraints have been implemented to address environmental concerns, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [5][30]. Demand Side - The demand for cement is anticipated to improve as major infrastructure projects are expedited in 2025, coinciding with the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [19][43]. - The industry has faced challenges due to declining real estate investments and government fiscal constraints, impacting overall demand [38]. Industry Dynamics - A consensus among major cement companies has emerged to strengthen self-discipline and promote high-quality development, moving away from destructive price wars [66]. - The industry is shifting towards orderly competition, with a focus on maintaining profitability and reducing inefficient capacity [66]. Key Companies - Key companies to watch include Conch Cement (600585.SH), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Tianshan Cement (000877.SZ), among others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry reforms and recovery [26][56].