CRRC(601766) 中国银河·2024-12-30 13:26Investment Rating - Maintained as "Recommend" [10][18] Core Views - CR450 EMU prototype released, marking a significant breakthrough in high-speed rail technology [15][24] - Railway industry remains prosperous, with high demand for new EMUs and maintenance expected [16] - Railway locomotive renewal elasticity is expected to gradually release, driven by large-scale equipment updates [25] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 234.26 billion in 2023 to RMB 286.47 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.08% to 3.19% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 11.71 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.12 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 0.50% to 0.07% [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 22.27% to 22.62% from 2023 to 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.41 in 2023 to RMB 0.53 in 2026 [5] Industry Analysis - The railway industry is expected to see continued investment, with fixed asset investment exceeding RMB 800 billion in 2024 [16] - High-speed rail mileage is expected to reach 70,000 km by 2035, with an additional 25,000 km to be added from 2024 to 2035 [16] - The demand for EMUs is expected to remain above 200 sets annually, driven by both new construction and maintenance needs [16] Company Performance - The company's product portfolio has been continuously upgraded, with the CR450 EMU prototype being the latest addition [24] - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement of old diesel locomotives with new energy locomotives, with an estimated demand for 2,000 new energy locomotives over the next three years [25] - The company's profitability in the railway equipment business is expected to further improve with the gradual commercial operation of higher-speed CR450 EMUs [24]