华为系列报告之十七：ARM优势裂变与AI机遇共振

Industry Overview - ARM dominates the mobile processor market with over 99% market share in 2022-2024, and 67% in other mobile chips like modems and Bluetooth [149] - ARM's competitors include MIPS, x86, and RISC-V, with MIPS and RISC-V also belonging to the RISC (Reduced Instruction Set Computing) category, while x86 is CISC (Complex Instruction Set Computing) [150] - RISC architecture is inherently more power-efficient, making it suitable for low-power devices, while CISC focuses on complex, high-performance operations with higher power consumption [152] ARM's Competitive Edge - ARM's success in mobile processors is attributed to its RISC architecture, which is efficient and low-power, aligning well with mobile device requirements [149] - ARM's competitors, MIPS and x86, have struggled in the mobile market, with MIPS falling behind due to commercialization challenges and x86 failing to gain traction in mobile despite multiple attempts [3][4][5] - ARM's strategic focus on mobile devices, particularly smartphones, allowed it to capitalize on the rise of mobile phones and smartphones, securing its position by partnering with key players like Apple and Android [5][7] ARM's Business Model - ARM operates on an IP licensing model, offering two types of licenses: core licensing and architecture licensing. Core licensing allows customers to use ARM's pre-designed cores, while architecture licensing gives customers more freedom to design their own cores based on ARM's instruction set [9][10] - ARM's licensing model has helped it build a vast ecosystem without directly competing with its customers, ensuring a steady revenue stream from licensing fees and royalties [14][15] - In contrast, MIPS' architecture licensing led to ecosystem fragmentation, while x86's closed model limited its ecosystem expansion [16][17] ARM's Expansion into New Markets - ARM is making inroads into x86's strongholds, such as PCs and servers, with partnerships with Intel and Samsung to optimize ARM cores for advanced manufacturing processes [24][25] - ARM's Neoverse series, launched in 2018, has established a new server ecosystem, with major cloud providers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google adopting ARM-based server CPUs [80][83] - ARM is also targeting the AI market, with innovations in its instruction set, cores, and software tools to support AI applications, particularly in edge devices and IoT [64][65][75] ARM's Future Prospects - ARM's market share in Windows PCs is expected to reach 50% in the next five years, driven by improved hardware performance and software compatibility, such as Microsoft's Prism technology [68][73] - The AIoT (AI + IoT) market is expected to see significant growth, with many AIoT devices using ARM architecture, potentially leading to a surge in ARM's royalty revenue [75][76] - ARM's server market share is growing, with 13% of server revenue in 2024H1 attributed to ARM-based servers, as cloud and AI companies increasingly adopt ARM for its open ecosystem and cost efficiency [87][93] ARM's Challenges - ARM faces competition from RISC-V, which offers a low-cost, open-source alternative, particularly in IoT and AI applications [45][49] - ARM's reliance on licensing fees and royalties could be impacted if major customers like Apple and Qualcomm increase their in-house chip design efforts, reducing their dependence on ARM's cores [41][42] - ARM's growth in the server market is contingent on continued adoption by cloud and AI companies, as well as overcoming the entrenched position of x86 in high-performance computing [82][87]