CRRC(601766) 中国银河·2024-12-31 05:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [19]. Core Views - The company signed contracts worth 693.5 billion yuan from August to December 2024, bringing the total new contracts for the year to 1,938.5 billion yuan, close to historical highs [19]. - The company’s new contracts for passenger trains increased significantly, with sales orders for new trains reaching 602 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 162.48% [19]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in railway passenger traffic post-pandemic, driving demand for railway equipment [19]. Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2023 is 234,261.51 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.08%. For 2024, revenue is expected to rise to 260,092.96 million yuan, reflecting an 11.03% increase [14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 11,711.58 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 14,024.40 million yuan in 2024, representing a profit growth rate of 19.75% [14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 22.27% in 2023 and slightly increase to 22.66% in 2024 [14]. Contract and Order Insights - The company’s new orders for high-speed trains and maintenance services have exceeded expectations, with maintenance orders reaching 453.6 billion yuan, marking a historical high [19]. - The report notes a decline in locomotive orders by 17.48% year-on-year, while freight car orders increased by 20.82% [19]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming replacement of old locomotives, with a projected demand for approximately 2,000 new energy locomotives over the next three years [19].