房地产行业报告：重启土储专项债，存量用地加速去库存

Investment Rating - Neutral: The overall industry return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [66] - Buy: Individual stocks are expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 15% or more within the next six months [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the real estate market dynamics, with government policies introduced to support the recovery of idle residential land [85] - The reintroduction of special bonds for land reserves is expected to enhance liquidity for local governments and real estate companies, aiding in the digestion of existing land stock [40][43] - Multiple regions are actively soliciting the recovery and acquisition of idle land, primarily in third and fourth-tier cities [45][22] Summary by Sections 1. Low Land Acquisition and Construction Rates - The construction rates for land acquired by different entities are notably low, with only 73% of state-owned enterprises, 65% of central enterprises, 41% of private enterprises, and 20% of city investment companies having fully commenced construction on acquired land [10] - The central government has introduced policies to support the recovery and acquisition of idle land, emphasizing the need for local governments to act based on actual conditions [12][8] 2. Reintroduction of Special Bonds for Land Reserves - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced the reintroduction of special bonds for land reserves, which had been halted since September 2019, to facilitate the acquisition of idle land [14][40] - The special bonds aim to reduce the scale of idle land in the market, improve supply-demand relationships, and enhance the liquidity of local governments and enterprises [43][40] 3. Public Solicitation for Idle Land Recovery - Various regions have issued announcements to publicly solicit the recovery and acquisition of idle land, including cities like Suining, Jinan, and others [45][22] - The focus is primarily on third and fourth-tier cities, with local governments actively engaging in land recovery initiatives [45][22] 4. Local Government Land Recovery Cases - The report details specific cases of land recovery in Guangzhou, where the government has successfully acquired three plots of undeveloped land totaling approximately 230,000 square meters [68][27] - Compensation for these land recoveries is based on market evaluations and negotiated agreements, with significant amounts allocated for each plot [73][29] 5. Challenges in Land Recovery - The report identifies challenges such as complex mortgage relationships and pricing discrepancies that may hinder the recovery of idle land [62][83] - The expectation of declining land prices poses a risk to the government's enthusiasm for revitalizing idle land [83] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the introduction of special bond policies will improve the financial conditions of real estate companies and enhance their operational capabilities, potentially stabilizing the market [85] - Investors are advised to monitor local state-owned enterprises and developers as they respond to these policy changes [85]