证券业2025投资策略：政策加力，景气上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [53][21]. Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing a rebound in investment performance, with significant improvements noted in the third quarter of 2024. The self-operated business revenue of listed securities firms reached 1316.89 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [5][10]. - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions to create new opportunities, with equity financing expected to achieve breakthroughs [9][27]. - The market is expected to remain active in 2025, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and continuous expansion of incremental funds [21][26]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a significant rebound since late September 2024, with major indices such as the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 17.79% and 15.87%, respectively [5][26]. - The securities sector's total market capitalization reached 3.53 trillion yuan by December 11, 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 25.43% [45][26]. Business Performance - The self-operated business remains the core driver of revenue growth, with projections for self-operated positions in various scenarios estimated at 6.3 trillion yuan, 6.6 trillion yuan, and 7 trillion yuan for pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, respectively [10][27]. - The report notes that the brokerage and investment banking businesses have seen a decline in revenue share, while self-operated business revenue has increased significantly [102][26]. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are expected to enhance the quality of development and stability in the sector. The focus is on improving the regulatory framework and encouraging long-term investments [79][84]. - The introduction of the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) aims to enhance market liquidity and support the capital market's resilience [7][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading securities firms, firms likely to enhance core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, and firms excelling in wealth management transformation [53][26]. - The report projects a net profit of 177.7 billion yuan for the securities industry in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.69% [53][26].