煤炭行业焦煤专题研究报告：全球范围内焦煤产能增长乏力，需求仍有韧性，看好中期焦煤价格持稳回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coking coal industry, expecting stable price recovery in the medium term due to resilient demand and limited capacity growth globally [1]. Core Insights - Global coking coal resources are unevenly distributed, with approximately half located in Asia and significant portions in North America [5]. - Domestic production is expected to gradually decline, while import volumes are not anticipated to increase significantly. The coal industry is expected to maintain a basic supply-demand balance, with coking coal prices likely to rebound due to stimulus policies [9]. - The report recommends undervalued stocks benefiting from domestic demand expansion and stable growth policies, such as Huabei Mining, Ping Coal, and Guanghui Energy, as well as high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Coking Coal Resource Distribution, Supply, and Demand Trends - Coking coal resources are primarily concentrated in Australia, Mongolia, Russia, and the United States, with Australia being the largest exporter [13]. - The global coking coal trade volume in 2023 is approximately 352 million tons, with Australia accounting for 43% of this volume [13]. 2. Domestic Coking Coal Supply Trends - China's coking coal recoverable reserves are about 67 billion tons, representing around 16% of global recoverable reserves [12]. - The report indicates that domestic coking coal production has exceeded 1.2 billion tons, but the washing yield of premium coal has been declining [50]. 3. Domestic Coking Coal Demand Trends - The demand for coking coal in China is expected to remain stable, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and resilient thermal power demand [9]. - The report highlights that the coking coal market is facing a tightening situation, with significant growth in imports from Mongolia and Russia [20]. 4. Profitability and Stock Performance of Typical Domestic Coal Companies - The report provides an overview of the recoverable reserves and production capacity of major domestic coal companies, indicating that most have a recoverable lifespan of over 20 years [55]. 5. Investment Analysis Opinions - The report suggests that investors focus on companies that are likely to benefit from domestic demand growth and stable policies, while also considering the potential risks associated with macroeconomic fluctuations and international demand changes [9].