2025年社会服务业投资策略：需求有底，拥抱新质

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the social services sector, including Xueda Education, Trip.com Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Santai Cableway [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of digitalization and internationalization in the OTA and local life services sectors, predicting continued growth for platforms like Trip.com, Meituan, and Tongcheng due to increasing online booking rates and improved competitive dynamics [2]. - It highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions, particularly in the automotive service and retail sectors, suggesting a focus on innovative business models and supply chain improvements [6]. - The report outlines a positive outlook for 2025, anticipating a stabilization in demand and a shift towards supply-side innovations, driven by new technologies and changing consumer demographics [11]. Summary by Sections 2024 Summary: Imbalance and Restructuring - The report notes a rationalization in consumer spending, with retail sales growth stabilizing around 3.3%, a significant decline from the previous year's high growth [34]. - It discusses the shift of tourism consumption towards online platforms, with OTA penetration rates significantly increasing, as evidenced by Trip.com and Tongcheng's revenue recovery exceeding pre-pandemic levels [36][49]. - The report identifies a supply-demand imbalance in the hotel and airline sectors, leading to downward pressure on prices and profitability [53]. 2025 Outlook: Breaking Through and Restructuring - The report anticipates a rise in service consumption, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand in various sectors, including household appliances and automobiles [58]. - It emphasizes the role of service consumption in driving domestic demand, highlighting its sustainability compared to durable goods consumption [63]. - The report suggests that the service sector will continue to absorb employment and drive income growth, further supporting consumer spending [63]. Education & Human Resources - The report identifies growth opportunities in the K12 education sector, particularly with advancements in AI and education technology [60]. - It notes that the human resources sector is expected to rebound in line with macroeconomic recovery, benefiting from improved employment conditions [60]. Duty-Free and Chain Services - The report indicates that the duty-free sector is awaiting demand stabilization, while chain services are expected to see marginal improvements as consumer preferences evolve [60]. Travel and Tourism - The report predicts stable demand in the travel sector, with opportunities for growth in diversified tourism offerings and OTA business models [60].