12月啤酒板块月报：静待啤酒行业景气度回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the beer industry, expecting a recovery in consumption and recommending stocks such as Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and China Resources Beer [5][36]. Core Insights - The beer industry is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in consumption due to the issuance of dining vouchers, which is expected to boost the restaurant sector and subsequently beer sales [4][5]. - The trend of consumption upgrading continues, with the price segment of industrial beer priced between 6-10 yuan showing resilience [4][15]. - Raw material costs for beer are expected to remain stable in 2025, with barley prices returning to pre-2020 levels and packaging material costs stabilizing despite fluctuations in aluminum and corrugated paper prices [5][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beer retail sales experienced a slight decline during the off-season months of October and November, but the overall consumption upgrade trend remains intact [4][15]. - The report highlights the impact of dining vouchers on improving the restaurant industry's performance, which is likely to enhance beer consumption [5][36]. Cost Analysis - Barley import prices have stabilized, and beer companies typically lock in prices for the following year at the end of the current year, suggesting a stable cost outlook for 2025 [32]. - Packaging material costs are expected to remain stable, with aluminum prices decreasing and glass prices fluctuating at low levels [32]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the beer sector, including Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and China Resources Beer, as potential investment opportunities [5][36].