2025年市场展望：勇立潮头，向“新”而行

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the US economy will maintain steady growth in 2025, but the support from fiscal policy may be less than before, and interest rates are transitioning from restrictive to neutral [2][4] - The tightening of immigration policies may create labor shortages in specific industries, potentially increasing wage growth, but the overall impact is expected to be limited due to a cooling job market [4][9] - The report suggests that the combination of Trump's core policies may lead to a tighter overall policy environment in 2025, which could weaken economic growth momentum and negatively affect inflation [9][11] Group 2 - The report expects the 10-year US Treasury yield to stabilize between 3.5% and 4.0% in 2025, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [15][37] - The Chinese stock market has largely absorbed pessimistic expectations, with current valuations reflecting historical averages and providing a strong margin of safety against external shocks [18][19] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming more sensitive to domestic demand changes, with a significant focus on internal factors improving [22][24] Group 3 - The public utility sector is seen as having significant allocation value during the current economic stabilization phase, benefiting from government-supported pricing mechanisms and stable market demand [28] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the US stock market in 2025, supported by factors such as improving corporate confidence and potential increases in consumer spending [30][58] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that may benefit from Trump's policies, such as energy and public utilities, while also considering small-cap stocks and cyclical sectors for potential excess returns [59][61] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but has a long-term upward trend due to rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical uncertainties [70][71] - The report anticipates that the dollar index will fluctuate between 100-105 in 2025, with potential short-term declines followed by a recovery in the latter half of the year [78][79] - The report emphasizes that the US economy's resilience and inflation persistence may lead to a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting market liquidity and risk appetite [49][111]