有色金属行业2025年度投资策略：供给受约束，看多顺周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [60]. Core Insights - Domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with 12.8 million tons projected to come online by 2025, potentially easing the current tight supply situation and leading to a decrease in alumina prices [2]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is projected to grow steadily, with estimated consumption of 4.482 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 198,000 tons [15]. - The report highlights the increasing application of aluminum in various sectors, including construction, electronics, and transportation, driven by its cost-effectiveness compared to copper [9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - As of December 6, 2024, the average price of alumina in China was 5,751 RMB per ton, a 92% increase year-on-year [2]. - The report anticipates a shift from demand-driven to supply-driven pricing for alumina as new capacities come online [2]. Section 2: Demand Forecast - The estimated demand for electrolytic aluminum in China for 2024 is 4.482 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 198,000 tons [15]. - The report details specific demand segments, including construction (1.39 million tons), electronics (807,000 tons), and transportation (610,000 tons) [15]. Section 3: Industry Trends - The report notes a growing trend of using aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications, which is expected to continue due to cost savings [9]. - The construction sector is projected to see significant aluminum usage, with a focus on aluminum alloy doors and windows, as well as aluminum formwork [9]. Section 4: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply-demand balance for alumina will be tight in 2024, with profits expected to increase for alumina producers while electrolytic aluminum profitability may shrink [20]. - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is influenced by global economic conditions, including inflation and interest rate changes, which could impact demand and pricing [60][62].