中金：2025年大宗商品市场展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the commodity market is currently in a mid-cycle adjustment phase at the bottom of a larger cycle [2]. Core Insights - The demand for major commodities such as copper, oil, and domestic steel has not yet completed the post-pandemic mean reversion process, with global economic growth slowing down since the second half of 2024, exacerbating the overshoot in commodity demand [4][15]. - The report highlights that the intensity of commodity consumption is being affected by economic transformation, with traditional demand facing challenges while new demand from emerging economies is yet to fully materialize [10][22]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests a potential synchronized recovery in economic growth, which may drive commodity demand back towards historical averages [22][41]. Summary by Sections Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the overshoot in global commodity demand post-pandemic, indicating that the demand has deviated from long-term trends [15]. - It notes that the intensity of demand for commodities like oil and copper has been influenced by both consumption intensity and economic scale changes [18][19]. Supply Constraints - The report emphasizes that supply constraints may lead to fundamental shortages, particularly in oil and aluminum, due to insufficient upstream investment and operational capacity nearing limits [35][36][81]. - It also mentions that the supply adjustments driven by OPEC+ are likely to maintain lower supply elasticity in the oil market [81]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the commodity market will continue to experience differentiation, with some commodities facing oversupply while others may see shortages [53][56]. - It predicts that the energy transition will provide growth opportunities for non-ferrous metals, although it may not fully offset the drag from traditional demand [38][110]. Price Trends - The report outlines a dual-peak distribution of commodity prices, indicating that while some commodities may face a loose supply-demand balance, others like oil and copper are expected to maintain tighter conditions [65][66]. - It also highlights that the price dynamics for commodities will be influenced by both macroeconomic factors and specific supply-demand conditions [94][137].