Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the ABS market, indicating that absolute yields are hard to find, but relative returns can be explored [2][7]. Core Insights - The ABS market is expected to see improved total supply next year, with consumer finance, small and micro enterprises, receivables, and other supply chain assets remaining the main supply drivers [4][23]. - The report highlights a significant increase in issuance from consumer finance and small micro loans, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 142% and 83% [23]. - The overall ABS issuance for the year reached 1.77 trillion yuan, an 8% increase compared to the same period last year, with a notable acceleration in the second half of the year [8][34]. Summary by Sections ABS Market Overview - The report anticipates a total issuance of approximately 2 trillion yuan for the year, driven by a robust primary supply [22]. - The liquidity premium remains, suggesting that while high absolute yields are scarce, there are still advantages in specific asset types [7]. Asset Class Performance - The report notes that the issuance of corporate ABS is supported by regulatory encouragement for infrastructure-type REITs and the issuance of single-holding real estate ABS [11]. - The report indicates a decline in the issuance scale of real estate supply chain ABS, primarily from strong-quality central state-owned enterprises [11]. Yield and Spread Analysis - The report states that the current yield for ABS is around 2.1% to 2.3%, down 60 to 80 basis points from the beginning of the year [14]. - The report highlights that the spread for ABS has narrowed, currently ranging from 10 to 25 basis points, with expectations for continued compression in the coming year [14]. Risk and Recovery Trends - The report mentions that the overdue rates for small diversified credit ABS have shown a slight increase, but the overall risk level remains low [78]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery rates of newly issued NPL ABS projects [23][19].
中金：2025年资产证券化市场展望
中金财富期货·2025-01-03 02:09