中金：2025年外汇市场展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of Trump's policies on the global currency market, particularly focusing on the US dollar and Chinese yuan exchange rates. It highlights that Trump's administration is expected to raise the central tendency of the dollar exchange rate through various policy channels [11][35][68]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Dollar Index and Economic Policies - The dollar index is currently at 106.321, with expectations of increased volatility due to Trump's policies [15][31]. - Trump's proposed policies, including tax cuts and increased military spending, are projected to raise federal debt by approximately $7.75 trillion from 2026 to 2035 [35][36]. Section 2: Trade Policies and Currency Impact - The report indicates that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty for trade partner currencies, particularly affecting the yuan [17][20]. - The performance of major currencies since November 2024 shows a decline against the dollar, with the yuan depreciating by 1.73% [22][43]. Section 3: Long-term Outlook for the Dollar and Yuan - The report suggests that the long-term trajectory of the dollar index may follow a pattern of initially declining interest rates before rising again [140]. - The yuan's valuation is currently lower than in 2018, indicating potential for depreciation under the influence of Trump's policies [203][204]. Section 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path are likely to influence the dollar's strength, with a potential for limited upside in the dollar index in the short term [164]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable exchange rate policy while allowing market forces to determine currency values [102][200].