2024年四季度国际宏观事件观察——南亚和东南亚

Group 1: South Asia - Sri Lanka's ruling party won the parliamentary election with over 2/3 of the seats, ensuring absolute power in parliament[3] - India's GDP growth slowed to 5.4% in Q3 2024, the lowest in nearly seven quarters, significantly below the central bank's expectation of 7.0%[5] - Bangladesh's interim government postponed the next national election to late 2025 or early 2026, deviating from the original plan[4] Group 2: Economic Adjustments - Bangladesh's interim government revised its GDP growth forecast from 6.8% to 5.3% and inflation from 6.5% to 9.0%[7] - The Indian central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 6.5% while reducing the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points[8] - Pakistan's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a total of 900 basis points since June 2024, now at 13.0%[9] Group 3: Southeast Asia - Indonesia's new president Prabowo was inaugurated, and Jakarta's capital status was officially revoked[12] - Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $2.48 billion in October 2024, marking 54 consecutive months of trade surplus[19] - Malaysia and Thailand aim to increase bilateral trade from $24.8 billion in 2023 to $30 billion by 2027[16]