2024年A股深度复盘：峰回路转

Core Insights - The A-share market in 2024 showed a significant turnaround, with a total index increase of 10.0%, indicating a strong operational state and profit effect [2][7] - The market experienced notable volatility, characterized by rapid declines and recoveries, with a distinct pattern of "double bottom reversal" compared to the "three-step decline" seen in 2023 [2][9] Market Review of 2024 - The market can be segmented into four phases: 1. Phase 1: Exposure and repair of liquidity issues (January 1 - March 8, 2024) 2. Phase 2: "National Nine Articles" and "517 New Policy" leading to a period of oscillation (March 11 - May 20, 2024) 3. Phase 3: Direction selection with a prolonged decline (May 21 - September 13, 2024) 4. Phase 4: Policy efforts leading to a turnaround (September 18 - December 31, 2024) [2][11] Insights for 2025 - Unlike the years 2019-2021, industry comparisons will dominate excess returns in A-shares in 2025, emphasizing the importance of macro trends in selecting styles and sectors [2][9] - Investors should leverage every opportunity during A-share consolidation phases, as historical patterns indicate multiple decisive moments each year [2][9] - The shift in predictive assumptions for 2025 will focus on strength versus weakness, contrasting with the binary "existence or absence" of counter-cyclical policies in 2023-2024 [2][9] - The past cycle of profit decline has led to a heightened threshold for positive feedback on counter-cyclical policies, with the rapid recovery of the A-share index in September 2024 reflecting a shift towards a more optimistic outlook [2][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw the index enter a wide oscillation phase, indicating uncertainty in pricing strength and weakness, necessitating scenario assumptions [2][9] Structural Review - The market's structural shifts during significant downturns often lead to short-cycle interspersed industries, as seen in previous economic transitions [2][9] - The current economic transition period reflects ongoing structural changes, with policy guidance and entrepreneurial spirit playing crucial roles in the transformation of the real economy [2][9]