Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.00, implying a potential upside of 42.0% [1][4] Core Views - JD Logistics' Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 8.6% YoY to RMB 51.25 billion, driven by increased market share capture and prior investments in shipping and air routes [2][7] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is forecasted to increase by 10% YoY to RMB 2.0 billion, surpassing market expectations of RMB 1.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.9% [7] - Full-year 2024 revenue is projected to grow by 9% YoY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2%, in line with company guidance of 3-4% [2][7] - The company's prior investments are expected to continue driving revenue growth in 2025, with further efficiency improvements and the ongoing integration of Taobao contributing to incremental gains [2] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profitability - 2024E revenue is revised upward by 0.6% to RMB 181.99 billion, with 2025E and 2026E revenues forecasted at RMB 194.62 billion and RMB 208.22 billion, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised downward by 3.1% to RMB 7.67 billion, with 2025E and 2026E adjusted net profits projected at RMB 7.91 billion and RMB 8.48 billion, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 10.6%, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.2% for 2024E and 4.1% for both 2025E and 2026E [3][7] Segment Performance - External customer revenue is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024E to RMB 95.28 billion, driven by strong performance in other external customer segments [3] - External integrated supply chain revenue is forecasted to decline by 1.1% in 2024E to RMB 31.99 billion, reflecting a slight slowdown in this segment [3] Key Financial Metrics - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.212, increasing to RMB 1.241 in 2025E and RMB 1.320 in 2026E [17] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 29.8% in 2024E, 28.1% in 2025E, and 25.6% in 2026E, reflecting strong profitability and operational efficiency [18] Industry and Peer Comparison - JD Logistics is part of the logistics sector, with peers including SF Express (9699 HK) and Dada Group (DADA US), both of which also hold Buy ratings [12] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from continued e-commerce growth and supply chain optimization, with JD Logistics well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [2][12]
京东物流：4季度业绩预览：前期投入拉动收入增长好于预期