海上观日：2025日本股市展望

Market Performance - In 2024, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 39,894 points, reflecting a 19% increase for the year[3] - The upward trend in the Japanese stock market was driven by a strong U.S. economy, yen depreciation, and corporate earnings growth[3] Economic Outlook - Japan's real GDP growth is projected to be 1% in 2025, slightly above potential GDP growth[4] - Core inflation in Japan is expected to remain above 2% throughout the year, with core CPI rising to 2.4% by November 2024[4] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are anticipated to reach new highs in FY2024, leading to improved capital expenditures in 2025[4] - The Japanese government plans to invest 10 trillion yen in AI and semiconductor industries from 2025 to 2030[4] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with a potential increase of 0.25% twice in 2025[6] - The timing and frequency of BOJ rate hikes will be closely monitored, especially in light of U.S. inflation expectations[6] Currency and Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate is forecasted to fluctuate between 150-170 yen in 2025 due to ongoing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials[7] - Despite a potential tightening of Japanese monetary policy, the yen may lack significant upward momentum against a strong dollar[7] Sector Opportunities - The AI and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive growth across various industries, including retail, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing[10] - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks, with an average dividend payout ratio below 40%[11]