国债期货周报：特朗普交易重启债券继续冲高

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond futures continue to rise, reaching historical highs amid a policy vacuum and market anticipation of upcoming changes[2] - The December manufacturing PMI is at 50.1, a marginal decline of 0.2, while the service PMI is at 52.2, increasing by 2.2[2] - The central bank has net withdrawn 342.2 billion, indicating a lack of interest rate cuts or reductions[2] Group 2: Futures Performance - As of January 3, TS2503 increased by 0.15%, TF2503 by 0.39%, T2503 by 0.55%, and TL2503 by 1.50%[2] - The five-day average for DR-007 is 1.81% and for R-007 is 2.04%[2] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - Speculation around the release of negative news before Trump's inauguration has led to a resurgence of "Trump trades" in the domestic market[2] - The government is focusing on stimulating domestic demand, which may alter market expectations if significant consumer spending occurs before the holiday[2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Current bond prices reflect a pessimistic outlook, suggesting a bubble; thus, it is advisable to take profits and avoid aggressive buying[2] - Investors are encouraged to consider light short positions at high levels, betting on potential interventions or policies exceeding low expectations[2]