BYD(01211) 国证国际证券·2025-01-06 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a 12-month target price of HKD 340.0, representing a 32% upside from the current price of HKD 258.2 [3][4][5] Core Views - The company achieved a record-breaking 4.25 million new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in 2024, exceeding its sales target [2][4] - The company's NEV sales grew 41.1% YoY in 2024, with plug-in hybrid sales increasing 72.8% YoY and pure electric vehicle sales growing 12.1% YoY [2] - Overseas NEV sales reached 417,000 units in 2024, a 71.9% YoY increase, setting a new record for Chinese automakers in overseas markets [2] - The company is expected to maintain its market share and profitability due to its strong technological and cost advantages [4][5] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 424.1 billion in 2022 to RMB 1,106.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 27.1% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 16.6 billion in 2022 to RMB 63.7 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 40.1% [1] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 17% in 2022 to 21% in 2026 [1] - ROE is expected to rise from 14% in 2022 to 22% in 2026 [1] Technological Advancements - The company has made significant progress in intelligent driving, with its high-end intelligent driving assistance system, "Tianshen Eye," being rolled out in December 2024 [5] - The company is adopting a dual-track approach for intelligent driving, combining in-house R&D with collaborations with partners like Momenta, Horizon, and Huawei [5] - The company plans to launch new models, including the high-end MPV "Xia" and upgraded versions of its flagship models "Han L" and "Tang L," equipped with the latest DM technology and blade batteries [9] Market Position and Valuation - The company's total market capitalization is HKD 803.2 billion, with an H-share market capitalization of HKD 281.3 billion [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 42.1x in 2022 to 11.0x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [1] - The company's P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 5.8x in 2022 to 2.5x in 2026 [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, driven by its technological leadership, cost advantages, and expanding product portfolio [4][5] - The company's focus on intelligent driving and new model launches is likely to further strengthen its competitive position in the NEV market [5][9]