公用事业行业周报：点火价差25年或上涨，行业估值业绩或双

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the electricity sector, particularly thermal power, with a recommendation to continue watching power plants due to expected profitability increases [3][4][8]. Core Insights - Electricity prices for 2025 are mostly established, with inland regions performing better than coastal areas. The report anticipates a turnaround in spot electricity prices in 2025, driven by an expanding electricity-coal price spread and secure dividend yields for power plants [4][5]. - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to production cuts and entering long-term contract ranges, although high inventory levels indicate oversupply [5]. - In Zhejiang, the user-end electricity price reduction is likely complete, with plans for further reductions in the future [6]. - The report notes a significant increase in negative electricity prices in Europe, reflecting a growing demand for marketization in the electricity sector [7]. - Profitability in the power sector is expected to rise, with thermal power's PE ratio below 10 and increasing dividends, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8]. Summary by Sections Electricity Pricing and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that long-term electricity prices in Guangdong and Jiangsu have been established, removing negative factors for the sector. It expects a favorable shift in spot electricity prices in 2025 [3][4]. - The report discusses the anticipated reduction in coal contracts for power plants this year, with potential changes in long-term coal prices, but maintains a favorable outlook for power plants in 2025 [5]. Regional Insights - In Zhejiang, industrial and commercial users completed transactions of approximately 350 billion kWh in 2025, with a planned price reduction of over 0.8 cents/kWh from 2024 [6]. - The report highlights the surge in negative electricity prices in Europe, with Germany experiencing 468 hours of negative prices, up 60% year-over-year, and France seeing 356 hours, up 100% year-over-year [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the power sector, including thermal power flexibility, thermal power transition, water and thermal power integration, coal power integration, and new energy sources [8].