2025年我国原材料工业发展形势展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for China's raw materials industry, with an overall positive investment sentiment for 2025 [2][3][22]. Core Insights - The raw materials industry in China is expected to maintain a growth trend in value added, with investment scale continuing to expand and economic benefits likely to improve [2][3][22]. - The report highlights the need for policies to enhance mineral resource supply security, accelerate digital transformation, and optimize product supply structure to address existing challenges [2][3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Judgments for 2025 - The value added of the raw materials industry is projected to grow, with mixed production trends across major products [4][8]. - The growth rates for various sectors such as non-ferrous metal smelting and chemical manufacturing are expected to remain robust, while steel and construction materials may continue to decline [5][8]. 2. Investment Trends - Investment in the raw materials industry is on the rise, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which saw growth rates of 26.4% and 25.9% in mining and smelting respectively [10][12]. - The overall investment scale in the raw materials industry is anticipated to expand further, supported by government projects and private sector investments [12][13]. 3. Trade Dynamics - The report notes a divergence in trade performance among raw materials, with steel exports increasing by 23.3% while imports decreased by 10.1% [14][16]. - Non-ferrous metal exports are also on the rise, driven by demand from emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace [14][16]. 4. Price Trends - Raw material prices are expected to show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and chemical product prices fluctuating [18][22]. - The report anticipates that the price of high-end materials may rise due to increased demand from new industries, while traditional product prices may face downward pressure [18][22]. 5. Economic Benefits - The economic benefits of the raw materials industry are projected to improve, driven by domestic demand and supportive government policies [20][22]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in profitability across sectors, with some areas like non-ferrous metals showing growth while others like steel face significant challenges [20][22]. 6. Challenges and Recommendations - The report identifies several challenges, including the need for enhanced mineral resource supply capabilities and accelerated digital transformation [26][29]. - Recommendations include implementing policies to support growth, enhancing domestic resource security, and optimizing product supply structures to meet evolving market demands [32][34][37].