检测服务行业2025年度投资策略：顺周期复苏，聚焦高景气度领域反弹机会

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment recommendation of "Outperform the Market" for the detection services industry [8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the detection services industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to local government financial pressures and weak demand from some downstream industries. The industry is at a cyclical low, but it is expected to rebound in 2025 as economic policies are gradually implemented and companies' performance improves [5][12][51]. - The detection services sector's valuation has fallen to historical lows, which may have fully reflected current expectations. As the macroeconomic environment improves, the industry is anticipated to see supply and demand recovery, with specific focus on high-demand areas such as military chips and other self-controlled sectors [5][10][12][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Still in Bottoming Phase - As of December 31, 2024, the overall PE (TTM) for the SW detection services sector is 28.46 times, with a historical five-year PE percentile of 17.05%, and a five-year average PE of 50.19 times. The overall PB (LF) is 2.4 times, with a historical five-year PB percentile of 8.99% and a five-year average PB of 6.09 times [10][20]. - The detection services industry is closely tied to the macroeconomic environment, with weak domestic demand leading to an oversupply situation in 2023. However, as the macro environment improves, the industry is expected to see a recovery in supply and demand in 2025 [10][29]. 2. Demand in High-Growth Areas Expected to Rebound First - The manufacturing PMI in December 2024 is at 50.1%, indicating a stable manufacturing sector. The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining stable economic growth and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the detection services sector [11][37]. - The military and satellite detection sectors are anticipated to see a rebound in demand. In 2023, China's defense spending reached 1,580.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, indicating a stable growth trend in military electronic component testing [40][41]. 3. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The electronic component testing industry is increasingly serving high-tech manufacturing, with significant growth in integrated circuit sales and production. In November 2024, electronic component sales increased by 24% year-on-year, and integrated circuit production rose by 23% from January to November 2024 [42][43]. - The automotive electronics market is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion RMB in 2024, driven by the ongoing development of automotive technology [45][46]. - The eVTOL industry is expected to reach a scale of 9.5 billion RMB by 2026, indicating a growing demand for third-party testing and validation services [48].