医药生物行业2025年投资策略：增量看空间，存量看结构

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [7]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is facing challenges due to structural aging and the new normal of post-collection procurement, necessitating a focus on structural opportunities in existing assets and growth opportunities from aging populations and international expansion [5][12]. - The investment strategy emphasizes "looking at space for growth and structure for existing assets," highlighting the need to adapt to the new normal in the post-collection procurement era [12][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Challenges and Solutions - The pharmaceutical sector has faced significant investment challenges, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index experiencing a maximum drawdown of over 50% [22][23]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation due to the impact of collection procurement policies, which have weakened the operational fundamentals of many companies [26][28]. 2. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies three main growth areas: medical insurance, out-of-pocket expenses, and international expansion [8][49]. - Medical insurance is projected to increase its share of GDP, with 2023 figures showing it at 2.66%, and expected to rise in the coming years [8][14]. 3. Structural Opportunities - The report discusses the shift in the pharmaceutical industry from a focus on drugs to a focus on medical services, innovation, and domestic production [9][48]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with opportunities arising from the restructuring of the pharmaceutical supply chain and the transition from generic to innovative products [9][12]. 4. Industry Trends and Investment Opportunities - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are adapting by rapidly iterating new product matrices to address sales peaks [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality innovative drugs entering international markets and the potential for valuation recovery of undervalued assets [11][14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines for 2025: high-quality innovative drugs for international markets and the recovery of undervalued assets [11][14]. - Recommended companies include a range of pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms, indicating a diverse investment approach [11].