高盛：亚洲经济分析师_2025年的十个问题

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses ten economic and market questions for the Asia-Pacific region and individual countries in 2025, highlighting key macroeconomic views and expectations for growth and policy changes across various economies [5][4] Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - China is expected to experience moderately slower growth due to potential US tariffs and a challenging export environment, while Japan and Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) are anticipated to perform better than in the previous year [4][10] - India's growth is projected to improve somewhat later in 2025, with a gradual reacceleration to above 6% [20][21] Interest Rate Projections - Policymakers across most Asian economies are expected to cut interest rates in 2025, with Japan being the notable exception where rate hikes are anticipated [4][15] - The main policy rate in China is expected to be cut by 40 basis points, with a possibility of larger cuts [15][19] Housing Market Insights - In China, a nationwide bottom in housing activity or prices is not expected, with home sales stabilizing but construction activity and prices likely to decline further [10][12] - Housing starts in China are down approximately 70% from peak levels, indicating a significant downturn in the market [10][12] Fiscal Policy and Consumption - China's augmented fiscal deficit is expected to rise to 13% of GDP in 2025, with a greater portion earmarked for household consumption compared to previous years [19][18] - Policymakers in China have prioritized boosting household consumption and improving investment returns [16][18] Currency Performance - The Indian Rupee (INR) is favored as a high-carry currency, with expectations of stability against external shocks [27][30] - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is projected to experience modest depreciation, particularly if US tariffs are imposed [30][31] US Tariff Implications - China and Vietnam are identified as the most likely economies to face new US tariffs, with an average increase of 20 percentage points anticipated [31][34] - Vietnam's trade surplus with the US is significant, making it vulnerable to potential tariff increases [34][35] Regional Growth Rotation - A rotation of growth is expected within the region, with a shift towards more domestically driven growth in China and North Asia, while higher-income economies like Japan and ANZ are anticipated to accelerate [46][47]