高盛：中国烈酒追踪_2025年强势开局进展和 2024年目标完成情况

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the spirits industry, but it highlights a sequential pick-up in retail sell-through and mentions low market expectations for spirits retail sales in 2025 compared to the high base in 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The spirits industry is experiencing a slower prepayment pace for 2025 compared to the same time last year, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye having completed 30% of their prepayment targets for 2025 [2][9]. - Six state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the spirits sector have announced interim dividends, with payout ratios ranging from 15% to 72%, indicating strong shareholder returns [3][10]. - Wholesale prices for high-end liquors have shown some fluctuations, with Feitian Moutai's price decreasing by Rmb100 to Rmb2,230, while Wuliangye's price remained stable at Rmb950 [4][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Prepayment Target Completion - Moutai and Wuliangye have largely completed their 2024 prepayment targets, with Moutai achieving 100% completion and Wuliangye at 100% as well. For 2025, Moutai has completed approximately 25-30% of its target, while Wuliangye is tracking at 20-30% [2][9]. Dividend Announcements - Moutai announced an interim dividend of Rmb23.88 per share, with a payout ratio of 72%. Other companies like Wuliangye and Yanghe also announced dividends, with ratios of 52% and 44% respectively [10][12]. Wholesale Price Trends - The report notes that the wholesale price of original case Feitian Moutai decreased from Rmb2,330 to Rmb2,230, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price fell from Rmb2,240 to Rmb2,200. Wuliangye's price remained unchanged at Rmb950 [4][20].