高盛：美国经济分析师_回顾2024年经济数据意外、我们的预测表现和市场反应

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [4][5]. Core Insights - The US economy grew around 2.5% Q4/Q4 in 2024, surpassing both the report's forecast of 2% and the consensus forecast of 0.8% [4][9]. - Core PCE inflation increased by approximately 2.8% Q4/Q4 in 2024, which was higher than the report's forecast of 2.2% and the consensus of 2.4% [4][16]. - The report achieved a hit rate of 67% for economic indicator forecasts in 2024, slightly above the 63% average over the past eight years [4][22]. - Market reactions to economic data surprises were notably strong in 2024, with stock market sensitivity to inflation at 2.2 times normal and bond sensitivity at 5.5 times normal [5][44]. Economic Growth and Inflation - The report highlights that the immigration surge significantly contributed to labor force growth, impacting GDP forecasts positively [4][9]. - The report adjusted its GDP forecasts multiple times throughout 2024, reflecting both upward and downward surprises in economic activity [4][10]. - The largest contributors to inflation surprises included methodological changes in calculating owners' equivalent rent and broader applications of "catch-up inflation" beyond just rent [4][16]. Forecast Performance - The report's forecasting performance was particularly strong for indicators such as core PCE (91% hit rate), retail control (86%), and core capex orders (86%) [4][22][28]. - However, the report underperformed on average hourly earnings (33% hit rate) and Philly Fed (45% hit rate) [4][29]. - The report's use of alternative data and proprietary indicators contributed to its forecasting accuracy [4][28]. Market Reactions - In 2024, equity prices consistently rose in response to positive growth surprises, indicating a stronger conviction that inflation would remain controlled despite robust growth [5][41]. - Treasury market sensitivity to growth data was elevated, reflecting concerns about growth and the Fed's data-dependent policy [4][38]. - The report notes that market sensitivity to inflation data remained high, even as inflation concerns diminished [5][44]. Economic and Financial Outlook - The report provides forecasts for real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025, with consumer expenditures expected to grow by 2.5% [54]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease to 2.4% in 2025, indicating a trend towards lower inflation [54]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.0% in 2025, reflecting a relatively stable labor market [54].