Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC with a 12-month price target raised to NT1,320, implying a 26.0% upside from the last close [32][33]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to achieve solid revenue growth of 26.8% YoY in 2025, following a 29.4% growth in 2024, driven by strong demand in leading-edge nodes, particularly from AI [2][40]. - The company is likely to raise its long-term guidance for profitability and revenue CAGR at its upcoming analyst meeting, supported by continuous strength in leading-edge nodes and less competition from other foundries [4][40]. - TSMC's gross margin is projected to increase to 59.3% in 2025, up from 56.1% in 2024, due to higher pricing for 3nm/5nm nodes and CoWoS technology [2][29]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to reach NT3,637,612 million in 2025, with a projected EBITDA of NT2,638,521 million respectively [5][14]. - EPS is expected to grow from NT60.21 in 2025, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [14][31]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TSMC holds over 60% of the global foundry market share, positioning it favorably against competitors like Samsung and Intel, which are currently facing challenges in advancing their nodes [40][2]. - The report highlights TSMC's leadership in advanced packaging technology, particularly CoWoS, which is crucial for AI applications and expected to see increased demand beyond AI in sectors like PCs and smartphones [20][40]. Capital Expenditure and Expansion Plans - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to be US$40 billion in 2025, focusing on the expansion of 2nm technology and CoWoS [17][18]. - The company is also planning to expand its mature node capacity in Japan and Europe, despite current overcapacity concerns in the industry [19][18].
高盛：台积电_2024 年第四季度盈利预测_未来一年将保持稳健增长；重申买入（CL）；目标价上调至 1,355 新台币
增长黑盒&久谦中台·2025-01-07 03:06