计算机板块2025年度策略：科技自立、AI开花，行业景气度逐步修复

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the computer sector, indicating that it is entering a new phase of growth and recovery, particularly driven by technological independence and AI applications [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgency of achieving technological independence in China, especially in light of recent U.S. export restrictions on semiconductor companies [4]. - It predicts that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI applications, marking a significant increase in their practical implementation across various industries [5]. - The report highlights the expected recovery in the downstream market due to supportive monetary and fiscal policies, which are anticipated to enhance industry prosperity [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Overview of the Computer Sector - The computer sector has experienced four major bull markets over the past decade, with the current phase identified as the beginning of the fourth major market [9]. 2. Current Position of the Computer Sector - As of late 2024, the SW Computer Index has seen a decline of 32.35% from January to September, followed by a rebound of 70.16% from September to December, but overall growth remains modest at 11.88% for the year [6]. - Institutional holdings in the computer sector are at a historical low of 2.4% as of Q3 2024, indicating potential for growth [19]. 3. Promising Sub-sectors for 2025 - The report identifies several key areas for investment in 2025, including: - General IT innovation (信创) - AI applications - Financial IT - Vehicle-road cloud integration - Industrial software - Data elements and cyclical information technology - Low-altitude economy [6][29][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the computer sector is poised for opportunities, particularly in the context of AI and technological independence, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from government policies and market recovery [6][29].