周度策略观察（2024年第51周）：绩优成长板块短线或有反弹，做好防守仍有必要

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a shrinking and fluctuating trend last week (December 23-27), with large-cap sectors outperforming while small-cap indices continued to lag behind. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, with a weekly change of +0.95% [9][10] - Most sectors experienced declines, but there was notable strength in banking, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, and transportation, while media, social services, computing, textiles, and real estate sectors underperformed [10][12] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to continue a short-term oscillating rebound, but defensive measures remain necessary. The A-share market has experienced "two fluctuations" in 2024, with a policy shift in late September effectively boosting market sentiment. Since mid-December, state-owned enterprises and large-cap value stocks have outperformed the broader market [5][33] - There are bright spots in certain sectors, with active trading expected to persist. Recent developments in AI large models, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots are anticipated to enhance market activity. High-performing growth sectors are likely to attract capital attention, while regulatory guidance on "supporting the strong and limiting the weak" should be closely monitored [5][34][35] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the performance among sub-industries, while the digital media, education, advertising, and e-commerce sectors have struggled for two consecutive weeks. Over 1300 stocks achieved positive returns last week, accounting for approximately 25% of the total, with a median weekly decline of -3.1% for individual stocks [10][13] - The recent focus on expanding domestic demand and the potential recovery of the M1-M2 differential are expected to drive stability in the domestic economy, with certain consumer sectors like light industry and pharmaceuticals showing potential for rebound [35][36] Global Market Context - Globally, markets experienced minimal volatility due to the Christmas holiday, with the U.S. stock indices collectively declining on Friday. The expectation of a more hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve in 2025 has led to rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the risk-free interest rate differential between China and the U.S. widening to over 2.9 percentage points [30][31]