2025年宏观经济展望：适时而变

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, but below the pre-pandemic 20-year average of 3.8%[7] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are expected to ease, potentially reducing adverse impacts on the global economy[7] - Trump's potential policy shifts, including tariffs and domestic reforms, could significantly impact global trade and economic growth[9][11] China's Macroeconomic Performance - In 2024, China's economy was driven by strong external demand, with export growth significantly higher than in 2019 and 2023, while domestic demand remained weak[2][15] - Real estate investment and private sector investment were sluggish, with retail sales growth also underperforming, indicating weak domestic consumption[15][17] - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[8] Policy and Reform Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference signaled a shift toward more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the economy[38] - Key policy measures include increasing fiscal deficit ratios, issuing long-term special bonds, and implementing targeted monetary easing to support economic growth[38] - Reforms aimed at boosting domestic consumption, stabilizing employment, and enhancing the service sector are critical for 2025's economic recovery[17][32] Risks and Uncertainties - External risks include potential disruptions from Trump's trade policies and global geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact China's export-driven growth[9][11] - Domestic risks involve weak consumer confidence, a sluggish real estate market, and structural challenges in transitioning to new growth drivers[17][32]