策略月报：近期港股红利表现更具韧性

Core Insights - The report highlights that since mid-December, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have experienced a pullback, but dividend assets have shown resilience, significantly outperforming broad indices [2][9]. - The recent increase in relative returns of dividend assets is attributed to heightened market volatility, reduced risk appetite, and a low interest rate environment, alongside demand from insurance capital for allocation [2][12]. - The long-term excess returns of Hong Kong dividend stocks and their comparative advantage over A-shares are crucial factors supporting the increased allocation to Hong Kong dividend stocks via the Stock Connect program [2][26]. Market Review - In December, global stock markets exhibited mixed performance, with Hong Kong stocks standing out. The Hang Seng Index recorded a cumulative increase of 3.3% with a maximum increase of 8.7%, while the CSI 300 Index saw a modest increase of 0.5% [10][12]. - The top-performing sectors in Hong Kong during December were consumer staples (9.3%), consumer discretionary (7.1%), and information technology (6.5%), while telecommunications services (-4.0%), real estate (-1.8%), and healthcare (-1.4%) lagged [10][12]. Recent Performance of Hong Kong Dividend Stocks - Since mid-December, both A-shares and Hong Kong dividend stocks have performed notably well amidst increased market volatility. The CSI Dividend Index only retreated by 4.5%, outperforming the broader market by 7 percentage points [16][17]. - The correlation between the excess returns of Hong Kong dividend stocks and risk appetite has historically been strong, indicating a tendency for funds to seek higher safety margins during periods of increased market volatility [17][20]. Factors Supporting Dividend Stocks - The global low interest rate environment has prompted investors to seek stable, high-dividend assets. As of December 31, the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index reached 3.8%, making it attractive on a global scale [18][26]. - Insurance capital typically experiences higher premium income at year-end, leading to increased demand for high-dividend assets. Recent investments by major insurance companies in Hong Kong stocks reflect this trend [18][26]. Long-term Performance and Valuation - The sustained inflow of funds through the Stock Connect program has significantly impacted the pricing of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the dividend sector. The total net inflow into dividend-related ETFs increased from 20.3 billion to 27.1 billion units in December [26][28]. - Since 2021, Hong Kong dividend stocks have consistently outperformed the broader market, with a 22 percentage point excess return relative to the Hang Seng Index as of January 25 [26][30]. - The comparative advantages of Hong Kong dividend stocks over A-shares include higher dividend yields, lower prices, and more attractive valuations. For instance, the PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index is currently at 9.0 times, placing it in the lower 20% of the past decade [27][30].