Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility during the New Year period, with major U.S. indices averaging a weekly decline of over 0.5%[5] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, increased, indicating heightened fear among investors[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.60%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while the 2-year yield dropped to 4.28%, down 3 basis points[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.4, while the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, both better than expected[23] - In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised down to 45.1, with the UK manufacturing PMI at 47.0, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector[28] - Japan's manufacturing PMI was slightly revised up to 49.6, and the Tokyo CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.5%[33][36] Geopolitical and Policy Developments - The U.S. government faces a debt ceiling issue, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that the debt limit may be reached between January 14 and 23, 2025[16][40] - The Federal Reserve's reserve balances fell significantly by 2.89 trillion, marking the largest weekly decline in two and a half years[16] - The political landscape in the U.S. is marked by uncertainty due to the H-1B visa policy debate and the upcoming presidential election, which may impact market stability[39] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased by 1.18% to 76.80[4] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.84%, reaching 108.9212, reflecting a robust dollar performance against other currencies[4]
海外宏观周报（2025年第1期）：跨年周全球市场并不平静
民银证券·2025-01-07 14:14