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基础化工行业周报：三代制冷剂毛利持续向好；涤纶长丝库存大幅下降
Tai Ping Yang·2025-01-08 00:29

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants continues to improve, while the inventory of polyester filament has significantly decreased [1][5] - The 2025 refrigerant quotas have been announced, with a substantial reduction in second-generation refrigerants and a slight increase in third-generation refrigerants, which is expected to sustain high industry prosperity [5] - Key companies to watch include Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Yonghe Co., Ltd. [5] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants remains strong, with the production quota for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) set at 163,600 tons for 2025, a decrease of 49,600 tons year-on-year. In contrast, the quota for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) is set at 791,900 tons, an increase of 43,400 tons year-on-year [3][4] - As of January 5, the profitability for R22 is 21,527.78 CNY/ton, R142b is 1,072.29 CNY/ton (up 154 CNY/ton), R125 is 22,897.36 CNY/ton (down 229 CNY/ton), R32 is 26,442.13 CNY/ton (up 490 CNY/ton), and R134a is 25,839 CNY/ton (up 505 CNY/ton) [4] - The inventory of polyester filament has decreased significantly, with the POY market average price at 7,100 CNY/ton (up 150 CNY/ton), FDY at 7,550 CNY/ton (up 150 CNY/ton), and DTY at 8,300 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY/ton). The total inventory stands at 452,300 tons, down 37.19% from the previous week [4] 2. Detailed Sector Tracking - In the polyurethane sector, TDI prices have seen a slight increase, while MDI prices remain stable. The average price for TDI in East China is 13,150 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from last week [19] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, the price of monoammonium phosphate has decreased, while diammonium phosphate profitability has improved. The price of monoammonium phosphate is 2,988 CNY/ton (down 46 CNY/ton), and diammonium phosphate is 3,541 CNY/ton (unchanged) [21][24] - The report notes that urea prices have declined to 1,678 CNY/ton (down 70 CNY/ton), while potassium chloride prices are at 2,517 CNY/ton (up 0.04%) [25]