日本市场月报：日经指数震荡上涨，日元继续贬值

Summary of Key Points Core View - The Nikkei 225 index experienced fluctuations but ultimately rose by 4.4% in December, with a total annual increase of approximately 19.2% for 2024, driven by a 12.8% rise in Bloomberg EPS consensus expectations and a 5.6% increase in dynamic PE [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded to around 40,000 points at the beginning of December, influenced by the surge in U.S. tech stocks, but later declined due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a drop in U.S. stocks [1][2]. - Foreign capital continued to flow out, with a net outflow of $7.15 billion in December, following a trend from November; however, there was a total net inflow of $1.6 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1][2]. Currency and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar strengthened in December, leading to a continued depreciation of the Japanese yen, which closed around 158 yen per dollar [4][6]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates, with the governor indicating a cautious approach to future rate hikes, contributing to the yen's depreciation [4][6]. Bond Market and Inflation - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield fluctuated around 1% in December, with minimal volatility, despite rising U.S. bond yields influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6]. - Japan's inflation showed a notable rebound in November, with core CPI (excluding fresh food) at 2.7% year-on-year and core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) at 2.4%, up from previous values of 2.3% [6]. Sector Performance - The TOPIX index rose by 3.9% in December, with the transportation equipment sector performing exceptionally well, increasing by 18.5% due to the yen's depreciation [8]. - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors also performed well, supported by the rise of U.S. tech stocks, while the easing of visa restrictions for Chinese citizens visiting Japan boosted investor sentiment in domestic consumption sectors [8].