2024年12月中国房地产快评：销售小于投资的另一面，去库存新周期已如期而至

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the real estate industry, with the investment-sales ratio expected to exceed 100% for the first time in eight years, signaling a "negative cash flow" period for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is entering a critical phase of inventory reduction in 2024, with several inventory-related indicators showing significant improvement [3][8]. - The industry is experiencing a dual decline in both sales and investment, with sales decreasing at a notably faster rate [5]. - The overall inventory scale is estimated to exceed 120 billion square meters, indicating a long-term process to stabilize the market [12]. Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Dynamics - In 2024, the total investment in the real estate sector is projected to reach 104% of sales, marking a significant shift where investment exceeds sales for the first time since 2014 [4]. - The current negative cash flow does not directly imply negative profit margins, as a portion of the investment is directed towards "guaranteeing delivery" projects and unsold properties [4]. Inventory Trends - Since 2022, the growth rate of inventory has been slowing, with 2024 marking a substantial improvement in three key inventory indicators [8]. - The broad inventory area is expected to decrease by 1% year-on-year by the end of 2024, indicating a reversal in the supply-demand relationship [8]. - The potential inventory, defined as the area of land not yet developed, has stabilized at 5.3 billion square meters, with idle land not continuing to grow [8]. Market Recovery Signals - The new housing sales volume is approaching a phase of stabilization, with projections indicating a drop to around 7.5 billion square meters in 2024 [18]. - There are signs of market stabilization, including an increase in the proportion of first-hand housing transactions and improved buyer confidence [19]. - The land auction market is showing signs of recovery, with average premium rates exceeding 6% in November 2024, indicating renewed investment confidence [19].