中国房地产快评：数读：供地信心齐升，土拍将迎“翘尾新纪录”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, highlighting a recovery in land supply confidence and an expected record in land transactions by the end of December 2024 [2][9][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the land supply in November has been increasing, leading to a significant year-end transaction phenomenon, with December land transactions reaching 27.9% of the annual total, a historical high [7][8]. - It is projected that December 2024 will see land transactions reaching approximately 3.3 billion square meters, a 97% increase month-on-month, with the cumulative decline in land transactions for the year narrowing to 16% [10][12]. - The report notes that the land supply willingness among local governments has significantly rebounded since the fourth quarter, with cities like Wuhan and Changchun showing notable increases in land supply [14][19]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transactions - The report highlights that the land supply in November 2024 accounted for 26.3% of the total annual supply, indicating a trend of increased supply towards year-end [8]. - December is expected to witness a record high in land transactions, with a projected 3.5 times the average monthly transaction volume, reflecting a recovery in local government confidence [11][12]. City-Specific Insights - Cities with high inventory, such as Wuhan and Changchun, are accelerating land supply, while cities like Beijing and Shanghai maintain a steady supply pace [14][19]. - The report notes that in December, the average premium rate for land transactions has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics where more standard plots are being accepted by investors [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the increase in land supply and the corresponding rise in transaction volumes indicate a gradual recovery in both local government and investor confidence [19]. - It also mentions that the overall market is stabilizing, with expectations for a new balance cycle to emerge in the industry [19].