2024年12月中国房地产研报：近2月京沪深市场高热对哪些二手新挂牌卖家触动大？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry in China Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has seen a significant increase in new listings following the September 26 policy change, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing increases of 10%, 25%, and 35% respectively in October compared to September [5][6] - However, the new listing momentum has slowed down in November and December, particularly in Shenzhen, where the average daily new listings dropped by 23% compared to September [5][6] - The majority of new listings are concentrated in the 60-90 square meter range, with 38%, 36%, and 44% of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively falling within this size category [7][10] - The age of the properties listed shows that 10-20 year old homes dominate the market, accounting for 47%, 33%, and 34% of new listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively [8][10] - New listings are primarily located in the secondary core areas of these cities, with significant proportions in districts like Chaoyang in Beijing (28%), Pudong in Shanghai (24%), and Longgang in Shenzhen (25%) [9][10] Summary by Sections New Listings and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new listing volume in the second-hand housing market has increased significantly post-policy change, but has shown signs of decline in subsequent months [5][6] - The concentration of new listings in the 60-90 square meter range suggests a focus on demand from first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [7][10] Pricing and Demand - The pricing structure for new listings shows a concentration in the 3-8 million yuan per square meter range, with a significant portion of listings priced between 300-500 million yuan per unit [12][13] - The report highlights a mismatch in supply and demand, particularly in larger properties in Beijing and Shanghai, where supply exceeds demand, while smaller properties maintain a more balanced market [15][17] Market Outlook - The report concludes that the second-hand housing market in Shanghai is likely to remain active due to a lower new listing volume compared to sales, while Shenzhen may experience stable demand. In contrast, Beijing is expected to see a decline in market heat as new listings outpace sales [23]