2024年12月中国房地产快评：供需同频，二手房价预期企稳在望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting that the second-hand housing prices are stabilizing and showing signs of recovery [3][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand-side indicators have continued to show strength, with the opening sales rate in key cities surpassing 40% for the first time this year, and both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes reaching new highs [3]. - There is a notable increase in the percentage of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices, with 48% of neighborhoods experiencing price increases in November, marking a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [3]. - The report emphasizes that the psychological pricing levels are converging, with the average negotiation space for second-hand homes decreasing to 19%, indicating increased seller confidence [9][12]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply and demand expectations are aligned, with more neighborhoods seeing synchronized price increases. In November, 33% of neighborhoods had rising listing prices, the highest increase in the second half of the year [4][6]. - The report also mentions that cities like Nanjing and Guangzhou have seen significant price increases, with 75% and 60% of neighborhoods respectively experiencing price hikes [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the second-hand housing prices are showing clear signs of bottoming out, with a significant increase in high-frequency trading neighborhoods and a rise in both transaction and listing prices [4][13]. - The average negotiation space for typical cities has narrowed, reflecting a shift in seller confidence and market dynamics [9][12]. Market Recovery Indicators - The report concludes that various indicators, including land investment and transaction volumes, are improving, suggesting a gradual recovery in the real estate market. The stabilization of second-hand housing prices is seen as a leading indicator for broader market recovery [13].