房地产行业：2024北京商业地产市场回顾及总结

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Beijing commercial real estate market, with expectations of continued challenges in 2024 and a potential recovery in 2025, influenced by government policies [3][55]. Core Insights - The Beijing commercial real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with insufficient effective demand, increased supply, and declining rents across various sectors including office, retail, and logistics [3][6][7]. - The report highlights the emergence of "new quality productivity" as a key driver for future demand in the office market, particularly in sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals [29][33]. - The report emphasizes the need for flexible leasing strategies and adjustments in tenant selection to navigate the current market dynamics [41][55]. Summary by Sections Office Market - The office market in Beijing is in a phase of intense competition, with landlords lowering prices to fill vacancies while tenants seek the best value [11][16]. - In 2024, the average rent for Grade A office buildings decreased by 16.1% year-on-year, with a significant increase in transaction volume by 22% compared to 2023 [21][17]. - The report anticipates a further decline in rents by 14.8% in 2025, as the market continues to adjust to economic pressures [17][33]. Retail Market - The retail market faced a historical high in supply in 2024, with new projects adopting a "launch first, fill later" strategy due to increased competition [36][41]. - The average occupancy rate for new projects improved to 88% within a year, despite initial low occupancy rates at launch [41][42]. - Retail demand showed a parabolic trend, with a strong first half followed by a significant decline in the second half of 2024, leading to a decrease in rental prices [44][55]. Logistics Market - The logistics sector has undergone significant changes from 2022 to 2024, shifting from a landlord-driven market to a tenant-driven market, influenced by economic fluctuations and increased supply [8][29]. - High-quality assets in core markets demonstrated resilience, while the Tianjin and Hebei markets capitalized on demand overflow from Beijing [8][29]. New Quality Productivity - The concept of "new quality productivity" has been recognized as a priority in government policy, driving demand in the office market, particularly from technology and innovative sectors [29][33]. - In 2024, transactions from new quality productivity-related enterprises increased by 106%, with significant contributions from the technology and pharmaceutical industries [30][32].