12月物价数据解读：手机、家庭服务支撑核心CPI继续回升

Group 1: CPI Analysis - December CPI remained flat month-on-month (previous value -0.6%), with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% (previous value 0.2%), consistent with expectations[1] - Food prices fell by 0.6% month-on-month (previous value -2.7%), while non-food prices rose by 0.1% (previous value -0.1%), leading to a continued decline in year-on-year CPI due to seasonal food price drops[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Price Influences - Vegetable and pork prices dropped significantly, with fresh vegetables down 2.4%, pork down 2.1%, and fresh fruits down 1.0%, collectively impacting CPI by approximately 0.1 percentage points[1] - Non-food prices shifted from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, influenced by seasonal travel demand around the New Year holiday, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to CPI[1] - Communication tools saw a month-on-month increase of 3%, driven by new product launches, particularly the Huawei Mate70 series[1] Group 3: PPI Trends - December PPI turned negative at -0.1% month-on-month (previous value 0.1%), with a year-on-year decline of 2.3% (previous value -2.5%), primarily due to seasonal production slowdowns[2] - Durable consumer goods prices fell significantly, with automotive manufacturing down 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with gas production and supply prices up 1.2% and electricity prices up 0.9% due to seasonal demand increases[2] Group 4: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with an average growth rate of around 0.5% in 2025, supported by improving tail effects[2] - PPI's year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, with an expected average growth rate of -1.1% in 2025, driven by policy measures and improved industrial demand[2] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and weaker-than-expected consumer confidence recovery[2]