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多视角复盘2024年A股走势:市场整体波动较大,不同风格轮转速度较快
国开证券·2025-01-09 08:29

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations in 2024, with two major ups and downs, and trading activity was initially low before a major policy shift in late September led to a market rebound [3][9][10] - The financial sector outperformed other sectors, while consumer sectors showed relatively weak performance, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector during the rapid rebound phase [3][4][27] - The performance of strategic emerging industries was generally weaker than the market average, with the North Exchange stocks showing significantly better performance compared to other boards, albeit with high volatility [3][4][48] Group 2 - The financial industry led the gains in 2024, with banks, non-banking financials, telecommunications, and home appliances seeing increases of 34%, 30%, 29%, and 25% respectively [27][28] - Consumer sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, lagged behind, with less than 20% of pharmaceutical stocks showing gains throughout the year [27][28] - The performance of state-owned enterprises was relatively strong, with a 57% increase in the number of rising stocks, while private enterprises showed a 32% increase [37][38] Group 3 - The valuation analysis indicated that many broad market indices had PE ratios significantly above their 2023 levels, with the ChiNext 50 index nearing its highest PE ratio since its inception [53][59] - The real estate sector's PE ratio was at its highest in nearly a decade, while some sectors like public utilities and agriculture had PE ratios significantly lower than their historical averages [59][60] - The overall valuation levels across different types of enterprises were deemed reasonable, with state-owned enterprises showing a higher proportion of rising stocks compared to local state-owned and private enterprises [64][65] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests that the A-share market's mid-term performance is expected to improve, driven by policies aimed at stimulating economic recovery and investor confidence [68][72] - Key sectors such as technology, electricity, and environmental protection are anticipated to present investment opportunities due to favorable policies and market conditions [74][75] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the M1-M2 differential as a potential indicator for economic recovery, with expectations for better performance in 2025 [72][73]