中国银河：每日晨报-20250110

Macro - The report discusses the potential upward movement of the 10-year government bond yield if three unexpected factors occur: 1) Fiscal stimulus exceeds expectations; 2) Policies to stabilize the real estate market exceed expectations; 3) Structural reform policies exceed expectations [7][5][4] Military Industry - The military industry index has increased by 34% from its bottom, but the order inflection point has not yet appeared, leading to a potential continuation of a volatile market [21][25] - In the medium term, industry orders are expected to improve, and high prosperity in 2025 is anticipated, transitioning from strong expectations to strong realities [21][25] - Long-term prospects include the upcoming centenary of the military in 2027, which is expected to sustain high prosperity, along with expectations of mergers and acquisitions [21][25] Computer Industry - The report highlights the entry of domestic large models into the acceptance phase, marking a new era for edge AI [27][32] - Major domestic tech companies are significantly investing in AI, with ByteDance's model achieving substantial user growth and Xiaomi building a large GPU cluster for AI development [28][30] Media Industry - The report notes a decline in December box office revenues but anticipates a recovery with 28 key films expected to be released in January [34][38] - The gaming market reached a record high in 2024, with significant growth in self-developed games overseas [36][38] Nonferrous Metals - The report indicates that domestic policies are expected to boost the nonferrous metals industry, with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and increased fiscal and monetary support [40][41] - The anticipated increase in domestic demand for nonferrous metals is linked to improvements in downstream sectors such as real estate and construction [42][43] REITs - The report outlines the growth of the REITs market in China, with a total issuance of 58 REITs amounting to 161.1 billion yuan, primarily in industrial parks and highways [11][12] - The investor structure is dominated by strategic investors, with institutional investors playing a significant role [12][13] - The report suggests a positive outlook for REITs, particularly in the real estate and consumer sectors, driven by policy support and stable income [16][15]