央行坚定维护人民币汇率韧性

Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will issue 600 billion RMB in central bank bills on January 15, 2025, the largest issuance to date[2] - This issuance represents approximately 43% of the existing offshore RMB central bank bills, which total 1,400 billion RMB[13] - The issuance also accounts for about 13.6% of the offshore RMB demand deposits and savings in Hong Kong, which amount to 4,410 billion RMB[13] Market Impact - The recent issuance is expected to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, with the CNH HIBOR overnight rate reaching 8.1% and 7.82% on January 7 and 8, 2025, respectively, the highest since July 2021[13] - The offshore RMB liquidity has been tight since mid-December 2024, with the CNH HIBOR fluctuating around 4%[13] Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability at a reasonable and balanced level, despite potential external shocks from new U.S. tariffs[26] - The current environment for the RMB is different from the 2018-2019 period, as the U.S. is now in a rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the previous rate-hiking phase[32] Fiscal Policy Context - China's fiscal expansion is expected to begin earlier this time, with the government debt cost being lower than the economic growth rate, providing support for the exchange rate[34] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected at 4.04%, exceeding the nominal interest rate of 2.17%, indicating a sustainable debt situation[35] Risks - Potential risks include misunderstanding of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions by the PBOC, and unforeseen U.S. tariff increases[41]